Since the birth of Bitcoin back in 2009, the cryptocurrency industry has provided us with plenty of events throughout the years, some pleasant, others not so much. From innovative new crypto projects and the staggering increase in Bitcoin price to scandals, major exchange crashes, regulatory debates and so on, crypto has constantly been in the news and in people’s minds from the very beginning. And since this innovative asset class is characterized by extreme volatility, much of the buzz centered around forecasting trends and price movements in the market.
These days, most predictions focus on the latest crypto winter and how different crypto projects are being impacted by it. As you may already know, the crypto space is currently suffering through a freezing cold winter, probably the harshest one to date. This has caused crypto prices to plummet across the board and render many coins obsolete.
For those holding hope that the next bull run might be just around the corner, Bitcoin serves as an indicator for predicting future market trends. In a ripple effect, changes in Bitcoin price trigger significant changes in the value of all other coins and the broader crypto sphere, so if Bitcoin gets on the path to recovery so might the entire market.
As the first and oldest cryptocurrency in existence, no other coin has experienced as many ups and downs as Bitcoin, but is the king of crypto strong enough to weather another crypto winter? This is a question that all crypto enthusiasts have been asking themselves lately. While no one can provide a sure answer regarding Bitcoin’s future evolution, we can at least speculate based on the events of the past and the data we have available at the moment.
Bitcoin bear markets through the years
Ever since the beginning, crypto assets have gone through regular periods of rise and decline, otherwise known as bull and bear markets. In this respect, digital currencies are similar to other types of assets like stocks or bonds that also experience these fluctuations. Bullish trends occur when market conditions are favorable and prices appreciate, while a bear market is the exact opposite describing a period of price decline accompanied by pessimism and low investor confidence. When bearish trends go on for longer than usual, they can transform into a crypto winter like the one we’re traversing right now.
Since Bitcoin has been around the longest, it has seen and lived through it all. A quick look back at its history can help us better understand the cyclicity of bear markets and how they have impacted its value over time.
Bitcoin managed to surpass the phycological mark of $1 in 2011, ending the year on a high note at $32. Unfortunately, this victory was short-lived as the coin dropped to $0.01 in the wake of a security breach on a major exchange platform that led to the loss of 850,000 BTC. This was the first in a series of crashes that Bitcoin would suffer over the years.
Eventually, Bitcoin recovered and in November 2013 it reached a new all-time high of $1,000. But just like it happened the first time, Bitcoin couldn’t maintain its skyrocketing value for long. A month later, Bitcoin price fell under $700, a drop that was most likely caused by the Chinese government placing a ban on BTC transactions. The worst was not over though, as prices continued to plummet all throughout 2014, reaching $170 in early 2015.
Following the bear market of 2014-2015, Bitcoin entered a period of recovery and got back to $1,000 in January 2017. The end-year saw the coin surge to $20,000 but the following months brought a correction that caused Bitcoin to lose more than 60% of its value. This is also the first time that the term crypto winter was used, referring to the staggering drop that Bitcoin suffered in 2018 and the subsequent crash of the crypto market.
The bearish trend extended until 2020 when Bitcoin finally got back on its feet and entered a new bull run that led the coin to an unprecedented high of $63,000 in 2021. As expected, a price correction followed suit and brought the price down to $29,000 in the course of a few months, but by November Bitcoin recovered and reached the biggest all-time high to date of $68,000.
This brings us to the latest bearish trend that started in late 2021 and continued in 2022, amid a series of scandals, bankruptcies and a stablecoin crisis, eventually turning into a full-blown crypto winter whose effects we’re still grappling with today.
In light of these successive bear markets and the ongoing uncertainty that dominates the crypto space, it’s difficult to talk about prospects for the future. But if we were to name one coin that has the best chance of surviving this prolonged period of decline, Bitcoin would be it. If Bitcoin was able to weather all these storms and rise stronger after each bear run, there are high hopes that history will repeat itself and the king of crypto will once again thrive.
Despite its fluctuating value and all the criticism it has received in recent years, Bitcoin preserves its first-mover advantage and continues to be the preferred choice of most traders and investors today. Over the course of time, Bitcoin has established a reputation as a reliable and resilient crypto project and a highly profitable albeit risky investment venue. The fact that more businesses and organizations are willing to integrate Bitcoin payments into their systems also proves that Bitcoin might have a bright future ahead.
Besides, the crypto is fast approaching its next halving which will probably take place between March and May next year. Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to rise after halving events, meaning that 2024 can mark the start of a new bull run. While there’s no guarantee that things will take a turn for the better in the months to come, it is very much possible for Bitcoin to recover and continue its course, leaving another dreaded crypto winter behind.