The Melbourne Cup is one of the most prominent horse racing events in the Australian calendar. Considered a deeply rooted tradition, its first-ever handicap race was held in 1861. The race that stops the nation has undergone minimal changes since its inception more than one and a half century ago. As such, seasoned and newbie punters alike also race to place their bets on the winning horse.
It’s always challenging to know the galloper who’ll take the crown. To increase the odds of winning the bet, one smart way you can do is review the Melbourne Cup results history. Here are some trends to watch out for in the coming races:
1. Consider the horse’s previous race performances
Expert punters, such as those at https://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup/results and similar sites, analyze each horse’s race performance to come up with an educated guess about the probability of winning. A horse that has placed consistently at the top three or five spots has a higher tendency to win. This is true not only for the Melbourne Cup but also for other races.
The main event that unleashes at the Flemington Racecourse every first Tuesday of November has side and preliminary races that punters can watch. Mini races include the 2,040-meter Cox plate at Moonee Valley and the 2,400-meter Geelong and Caulfield Cup, all happening in October. Professionals also consider these races as a potential indicator of the winner for the main event.
2. Check what professionals have to say
While they may not always be right, expert insights may help punters choose a few winnable horses. Most online betting sites have their criteria for selecting the thoroughbred likely to win the Melbourne Cup. They analyze racing performance history, calculate odds, study forms, and look at pre–Melbourne Cup event results.
Professional bettors and occasional punters can check expert Melbourne Cup tips at Racenet and similar sources when information about the race comes up. Expert advice on these sites is constantly updated and can change quite quickly from day to day as the Melbourne Cup approaches.
3. Survey the most “winnable” age
Many may think that the younger the horse is, the better. However, looking at Melbourne Cup results, this belief may not always be accurate. While the race accommodates at least three-year-old thoroughbreds, four- and five-year-olds have historically had the highest number of wins. Cumulatively, this age group has won 90 times, with four-year-olds winning 46 times and five-year-olds crowned 44 times so far. You may have better chances of winning by betting on horses within this age range.
4. Find out who’s riding the thoroughbred
Jockeys contribute to a horse’s performance on the track, which holds for all the best horse races in the world. It wasn’t until horse riders learned to crouch on a horse’s back that horse race times increased by up to 7%. This led experts to believe that a jockey’s specific riding or “driving” style can make horses race faster. This can be explained by the kinetic energy created by the unique movements of the jockey, which can drive a horse to run quicker.
Looking at past performances of a horse rider might be an excellent way to increase the betting odds. In the past decades, there had been two jockeys with four wins each, the highest number in the Melbourne Cup history. Of late, professional jockey Glenn Boss has won in three consecutive races, from 2003 to 2005.
5. The trainer matters too
Apart from the jockeys, race trainers also play a crucial role in making a great racer out of a thoroughbred. These horse-race professionals are critical in grooming a winning horse. They ensure the horse gets all the resources they need for maximum performance.
Based on the entire Melbourne Cup history, the most decorated trainer was Bart Cummings, whose horses won 12 times within 40 years, from 1968 to 2008. His record has yet to be shattered by contemporary trainers, but a bettor would want to consider betting on trainers who have produced the most horses who won.
6. Think about the colors
Looking at colors may be the least logical basis for making a choice, but seasonal punters may want to consider this when betting for fun. A look at the Melbourne Cup history shows that blue (20) and black (17) are the top two colors worn by winning jockeys.
History also reveals that bay-colored thoroughbreds have the greatest number of wins in the cup, representing 43% of all victories. This winningest hue refers to horses with reddish-brown hair and black-colored mane and tail.
Another bay-colored horse, Verry Elleegant, won the 2021 Melbourne Cup. This mare’s win comes more than ten years after the last female horse—named Makybe Diva, also a bay-colored mare—was crowned in 2005.
The Bottom Line
The Melbourne Cup is one of the most prominent global horse racing events, attracting punters from all corners of the world. Whether you’re an occasional bettor or a seasoned punter, a mix of analytical skills, research, and luck will help you back the horse with the highest winning probability. You can also check out Melbourne Cup’s history, focusing on the elements mentioned above, to help increase your betting odds.